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War Declared:
The Possibilities of Peace
Previous diplomatic crises involving Morocco or the Balkans
had lasted weeks or even months, during which period diplomacy had time
to function. In 1914 only 13 days elapsed between the Austrian ultimatum
to Serbia and the beginning of general war. Austria-Hungary and Germany
hoped to force the other powers to accept their violent action against
Serbia. To meet this situation, which took them by surprise, Russia, France,
and Britain resorted to improvisation, with not too happy results. Sazonov
and Grey made new suggestions almost daily, before their previous proposals
could have been considered, so that the diplomatic situation became increasingly
obscure. The confusion reached its height on August 1, when Germany declared
war on Russia at the moment when both that country and Austria were reported
to be willing at last to negotiate. A little time was needed to determine
what the situation actually was, but just as diplomats had previously
made decisions without sufficient reflection, so now the military authorities,
thinking in terms of mobilization timetables, began to take over from
the civil authorities. The three emperors, Francis Joseph I, Nicholas
II, and William II, all hesitated for a long time before they consented
to the irrevocable measures of mobilization and declarations of war; unfortunately,
the first was almost senile, the second weak, and the last volatile and
impetuous. Furthermore, among the statesmen who had to make the decisions,
there was no outstanding personality-no Camillo Benso di Cavour, no Otto
von Bismarck, no Benjamin Disraeli-who could or did dominate the situation.
In the years from 1871 to 1914, peace was maintained in
Europe by the combination of alliances and armaments. In the crises before
1914-in 1875, 1887, 1905, 1908-1909, 1911, and 1912-1913-governments did
not go to war because they were not ready for war, were not sure of the
support of their allies, or did not think the issues worth fighting for.
In 1914, the balance of power was at stake for an indefinite time ahead,
and the governments were more nearly ready for war than they had ever
been. Austria-Hungary and Germany were determined on a military solution
of the Serbian problem and wished to upset the status quo; Russia, France,
and Britain were prepared to accept a diplomatic humiliation of Serbia
but not its military subjugation, and while they were not committed to
the status quo, they were not willing to let it be altered without their
consent. Thus the system of alliances, which had originally served the
cause of peace, operated almost mechanically in 1914 to convert a local
conflict into a general war.
Likewise, great armaments had helped to keep the peace,
provided they were not used. The instant one power began to mobilize in
order to strengthen its diplomatic position, however, military men everywhere
became nervous, for no general staff was willing to let a rival get much
of a start. And once they started, nothing could stop them.
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